Making Decisions in Times of Uncertainty: From Strategy to Execution
"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security."
— John Allen Paulos
In a world defined by volatility—from trade wars and tariffs to shifting regulatory landscapes and geopolitical uncertainty—making business decisions has become increasingly complex. For leaders in the energy and industrial sectors, the stakes are even higher. Capital intensity, operational interdependence, and long project cycles mean that a wrong turn today can echo for years.
Yet uncertainty doesn’t pause business. It accelerates it. Markets shift, supply chains get disrupted, and new risks (and opportunities) appear seemingly overnight. The companies that thrive are not those that avoid uncertainty, but those that learn to make decisions confidently within it.
At Adduco Inc., we work closely with leaders to navigate this complexity. What we've seen—again and again—is that strong decisions are not defined solely by strategic brilliance. Their real value is measured by their ability to be implemented effectively.
This blog outlines a framework for making decisions in uncertain environments, evaluating them strategically and operationally, and ensuring they translate into real-world results.
Decision-Making in Complex Environments
We tend to think of decision-making as the art of choosing the best path forward. In uncertain environments, however, the "best" path may be unclear—or rapidly shifting.
Strategic planning tools, scenario analysis, and cross-functional alignment become vital. But just as important is the cultural and operational ability of your organization to execute the decision once it’s made. As the leader, your job is not just to identify the next move—it's to make sure the organization can pull it off.
We break this challenge down into three interrelated layers:
Evaluating the Value of the Decision
Assessing the Ability to Implement It
Using Strategic Tools to Bridge the Gap Between Strategy and Execution
1. Evaluating the Value of a Decision
Before committing time, money, and political capital to a decision, it's essential to ask: Is this the right decision, for us, right now?
Here are the key criteria we use when helping clients evaluate decision value:
Strategic Alignment – Does this decision align with our long-term vision and business model?
Return on Investment – Will this deliver a meaningful financial or operational benefit?
Risk Exposure – Does this help us manage a material threat—or introduce a new one?
Opportunity Capture – Does this unlock a market opportunity or strengthen our position?
Sustainability – Is this decision viable under multiple future scenarios?
Example: An industrial services provider may consider expanding into a new U.S. region. The opportunity looks promising on paper, but without knowing how U.S. protectionism or tariffs might affect costs and margins, the strategic value remains unclear until risk exposure and market dynamics are better understood.
2. Evaluating the Ability to Implement the Decision
Even when the decision is strategically sound, it may not be practically viable. Leaders often assume execution will follow naturally—but experience shows otherwise.
Here are the criteria we use to assess the ability to implement:
Organizational Capacity – Do we have the talent, time, and resources?
Leadership Alignment – Are our senior leaders bought in and prepared to support this?
Clarity of Ownership – Who owns this initiative? Who’s accountable for what?
Cultural Readiness – Does this decision challenge deeply held norms or beliefs?
Execution Infrastructure – Are our systems, tools, and metrics aligned to support it?
Stakeholder Engagement – Have we assessed the reactions of key internal and external parties?
Example: An energy company decides to pivot toward digital operations to reduce downtime. The strategy is sound—but implementation fails due to resistance from frontline staff, unclear ownership across departments, and outdated performance metrics.
3. Bringing It Together: The Decision Evaluation Matrix
At Adduco, we use a two-dimensional matrix to help leaders think clearly about which decisions to move forward with—and which ones need more work or should be shelved.
This framework is simple but powerful. It grounds strategic conversations in both value creation and execution feasibility, helping executive teams align quickly around the most actionable priorities.
Tools to Make Better Decisions in Uncertain Times
The energy and industrial sectors are no strangers to complexity—but uncertainty at today’s scale requires more than experience and instinct. It requires structured tools that bring clarity, discipline, and insight to the decision-making process. Here are seven of the most effective:
1. Scenario Planning
Enables leaders to test decisions across multiple future conditions (e.g., regulatory changes, commodity swings, political instability).
Example: An oilfield services company models three futures: stable pricing, high volatility, and carbon-tax expansion. They develop tailored capital strategies for each.
2. SWOT Analysis
Helps clarify internal and external factors that impact a decision’s potential.
Example: A pipeline construction firm uses SWOT to evaluate a shift toward green infrastructure. Strengths include experience with large capital projects; weaknesses include lack of ESG credentials.
3. Risk Matrix and Heat Mapping
Visualizes and prioritizes risks based on likelihood and impact.
Example: during a turnaround project, a risk matrix reveals that contractor availability is more likely to delay completion than equipment readiness—shifting focus accordingly.
4. Decision Trees
Breaks down complex choices into structured pathways with logical consequences.
Example: A logistics company maps out sourcing options, weighing trade-off scenarios like cost, delivery speed, and political risk per supplier region.
5. PESTLE Analysis
Scans macro-environmental factors: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental.
Example: An industrial waste management firm uses PESTLE to prepare for evolving climate regulations, automation shifts, and potential changes to cross-border waste export rules.
6. Contingency Planning
Defines proactive responses to possible adverse events.
Example: A power generation operator develops contingency plans for supply chain delays, alternative fuel sources, and emergency crew mobilization under extreme weather conditions.
7. Stakeholder Mapping
Ensures all critical stakeholders are considered and appropriately engaged.
Example: A refinery undergoing restructuring maps stakeholders—employees, unions, regulators, suppliers—and develops tailored engagement plans for each group.
Why Execution Matters More Than Ever
We’ve all seen brilliant strategies die in the execution phase. Why? Because implementation wasn’t considered early enough—or wasn’t structured effectively.
In uncertain environments, the ability to execute becomes a competitive advantage. That’s where Adduco focuses much of our work with clients: not just developing smart strategies, but making sure they land on the ground and produce results.
Our approach includes:
Establishing clarity of purpose – ensuring everyone knows the “why”
Aligning leadership and frontline teams – so execution doesn’t get lost in translation
Developing accountability structures – making performance visible and trackable
Embedding adaptive feedback loops – so teams can adjust quickly without losing momentum
A strategic decision without implementation is just an intention. A well-executed decision—even a modest one—can deliver real, measurable value.
Final Thoughts for Leaders
As a senior or executive leader in today’s environment, you’re constantly being asked to make big decisions with imperfect information, under increasing pressure.
You don’t need a crystal ball. But you do need a process—a way to filter, evaluate, test, and act on strategic decisions with confidence.
At Adduco, we help leaders build that process. We work side-by-side with executive teams to:
Clarify strategic goals
Evaluate decision options with the right tools
Align the organization for implementation
Adapt in real time as the environment changes
We believe that leadership isn’t about having all the answers—it’s about having a system to make the best possible decisions in the face of uncertainty, and the operational strength to see them through.
Ron Bettin, MBA, CMC is a Canadian executive and public speaker with more than 25 years of leadership and entrepreneurial experience. He co-founded several companies and provides management consulting through Adduco Inc. to large and small corporations. Ron strongly understands the importance of building value and creating success. He is a Southern Alberta Institute of Technology graduate with an MBA from Queen's School of Business.